Expert picks and betting tips for the 2022 US Open

Expert picks and betting tips for the 2022 US Open

The 2022 US Open Championship returns to Brookline Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, for the first time since 1988, with a loaded field of 156 golfers vying for the top 60 spots to advance. 2011 US Open winner Rory McIlroy enters the weekend as the favorite after winning the RBC Canadian Open last weekend. McIlroy will have to beat out a tough field including defending champion Jon Rahm, PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down the field for the third major of the year.

Jump to a section:
Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more


Expert picks

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com
Winner: Will Zalatoris

Andy North, ESPN
Winner: Justin Thomas

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner:
Shane Lowry

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winner:
Tony Finau

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner:
Cameron Smith

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winner:
Dustin Johnson

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner:
Will Zalatoris

Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.com
Winner:
Will Zalatoris

Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler


Betting value picks to win

Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket,

Michael Collins, ESPN senior golf analyst
Winner: Sam Burns (25-1)

Why he’ll win: Burns has three wins already this season and is hot coming off his past three starts. At 25-1, he has plenty of value in a stacked field.

Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Sungjae Im (40-1)

Why he’ll win: Im plays well on the big stage (T-2 and T-8 at the Masters, T-17 at the PGA Championship). He checks many of the boxes when looking at the metrics needed to win at Brookline, ranking 29th in driving accuracy, seventh in greens in regulation and third in scrambling this season.

David Bearman, sports betting deputy editor, ESPN.com
Winner: Justin Thomas (11-1)

Why he’ll win: Thomas turned in another incredible performance last week in Canada with a 63-64 weekend to almost chase down Rory McIlroy. He is third on tour tee-to-green and shots gained overall, 6th on approach and 14th off the tee. Thomas is arguably the hottest golfer on tour right now and finally got past the “second major” drought last month. No. 3 should be in the cards this weekend.

Chris Fallica, ESPN betting analyst
Winner:
Dustin Johnson (40-1)

Why he’ll win: Johnson is a past US Open champion and has enjoyed a stretch of five top-six finishes in seven years. This course will mandate long, accurate play off the tee, and that’s right up DJ’s alley. He hasn’t had the best of years, but at this price, he’s absolutely worth a play.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Xander Schauffele (22-1)

Why he’ll win: Schauffele has never won a major but has always been in contention at the US Open. He’s played the event five times in his career and has a T-5, T-6, T-3, 5 and T-7. Schauffele always seems to play his best when the conditions are most treacherous and the field is the deepest. It’s time for the X-Man to breakthrough with his first major win.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Shane Lowry (35-1)

Why he’ll win: Lowry just produced a T-10 in Canada to go with his T-3 finishes at both the Masters and RBC Heritage and outright second-place result at the Honda Classic. He currently ranks ninth on tour in strokes gained: approach the green, which is integral at a track like Brookline with postage stamp greens.


Odds of winning the 2022 US Open


Props and more

Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to made cuts to tournament matchups,

Dustin Johnson top-10 finish (+400)
Bearman: This pick isn’t about the LIV Tour, but about getting 4-1 top-10 value on a former No. 1 player in the world, who has a strong résumé of playing well on Northeast courses. He has six top 10s at the US Open, including a win in 2016. He hasn’t been great this year at all, but if he brings his A-game and golfs with a chip on his shoulder, this could cash as well as the 40-1 payout to win.

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+175)
Bearman: I’ll be playing Morikawa to win and top-10 as he is arguably the tour’s premier ball-striker and this course demands that type of game. His struggle has always been the putter, but Morikawa figured it out at the two previous majors. This course is tailor-made for a guy fifth on approach and 20th off the tee, and a third leg of grand slam is not out of the question.

Bryson DeChambeau top-5 finish (+800)
Collins: DeChambeau is healthy and surprisingly under the radar this week. This is a literal “bang for the buck” bet. He’s going to try to do what he did at Winged Foot to win that US Open.

Playoff to Decide the Winner (+310)
Collins: Media members hate hearing the word playoff in golf, but this week has all the potential for a three- to four-man playoff. A lot of guys look like their games are peaking right now.

Xander Schauffele top-10 finish (+225),
Fallica: While Schauffele hasn’t broken through for a major championship win, he’s excelled on US Open courses. He has posted five Top 10s in each of his five appearances, with three top-fives. Schauffele ranks seventh in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ninth in strokes gained: total. That well-rounded game should yield another strong weekend at the US Open.

Viktor Hovland to miss cut (+225)
Fallica:
Hovland doesn’t have a Top 20 in a stroke play event since March and has never finished in the Top 10 in a major. He’s also terrible around the green — 204th in strokes gained around the green — and given the small size of these greens, that could spell trouble for him this weekend.

Max Homa top-20 finish (+160)
Marks: Homa’s first two tour wins were both on major championship quality courses. He T5 at the Memorial — where he only needed 99 putts that week, and T-13 at the PGA Championships last month.

Adri Arnaus top-40 finish (2-1)
Marks:
Arnaus has the distance to compete this week. He has dominated the DP World Tour, finished T-30 at the PGA Championship, and is the second-best player from Spain, behind Jon Rahm.

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